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Cigarettes bad for health, good investment

Why is Wall Street so infatuated with cigarettes? Cigarettes have certain advantages over other consumer products, not the least of which is that they are ... There are plenty of reasons cigarettes would seem to be a terrible business.

The number of American smokers usually drops about 1 or 2 percent a year. Government agencies keep adding cigarette taxes and outlawing smoking in restaurants, workplaces and even on public sidewalks. And tobacco companies continue to pay billions of dollarsin legal settlements, money that is used in part to produce anti-smoking ads.

For all the industry's apparent troubles, however, the future of cigarettes appears to bebrighter than ever.

That at least is the message investors are sending as the Altria Group - once known as Philip Morris and the maker of the world's most popular cigarette, Marlboro - prepares to spin off its Kraft Foods division to shareholders and become, once again, primarily a tobacco company. Today, Louis C. Camilleri, the chief executive of Altria, was expected to set a timetable for the spinoff.

Wall Street is responding with the equivalent of a standing ovation, but not because Kraft Foods, the world's second-largest food company, after Nestle, will finally shed the taint of tobacco.

Investors are glad Altria will finally be rid of Kraft Foods, the maker of Oreo cookies, Velveeta and Tang. Since October, when Altria announced its plan for the move, its shares have risen 10 percent.

"Something that is forgotten in all of this is people like to smoke," said David Adelman, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, who noted that U.S. tobacco stocks have beaten the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index in each of the last six years.

In the 5 1/2 years since Altria sold 280 million shares of Kraft at $31 each in an initial public offering, the stock has remained relatively unchanged, closing yesterday at $34.83. Altria owns 88.6 percent of Kraft's stock.

By contrast, shares of Altria have nearly doubled during that period, moving from $47 to yesterday's price of $87.54.

Why is Wall Street so infatuated with cigarettes? Cigarettes have certain advantages over other consumer products, not the least of which is that they are addictive. They are inexpensive to make, require almost no innovation, there is a global market for them, and cigarette makers can raise prices without seeing much of a drop in business.

On top of all that, a recent string of court decisions has convinced investors that the worst of the litigation against tobacco companies is finally over.